Phoenix vs. Tampa
AZ · FL
Phoenix sits at $411k median with 4.58% gross yield; Tampa runs $377k at 6.22%. Which actually works better for an operator depends on the strategy.
Every metric, with winners flagged.
| Metric | Phoenix | Tampa | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Typical home value | $411k | $377k | Lower price = less capital per door = faster portfolio building. Higher price often correlates with appreciation potential. |
| YoY appreciation | -2.4% | -3.1% | Positive YoY favors flippers and BRRRR refi appraisals; negative YoY favors cash buyers negotiating distressed deals. |
| Median rent (ZORI) | $1,571 | $1,951 | Higher rent dollars matter for cash flow analysis. Pair with price to compute yield. |
| Gross rent yield | 4.58% | 6.22% | The single most important number for BRRRR + rental investors. Above 6% = comfortable cash flow at 2026 debt costs. |
| Median DOM | 23 days | 30 days | Longer DOM = more negotiation room for cash buyers. Shorter DOM = faster flipper exits. |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 0.987 | 0.976 | Lower ratio = buyer market = sellers negotiating. Higher ratio = seller market = bid wars. |
| % sold below list | +61.2% | +67.5% | Higher % below list = more motivated sellers = bigger wholesale spreads. |
| Active inventory | 5,617 | 3,016 | Higher inventory = more deals to evaluate. Lower inventory = supply-constrained = competitive. |
| MDR investor score | 57/100 | 79/100 | Composite score weighing rent yield, motivated sellers, buyer-market discount, DOM. |
Comparing Phoenix, AZ against Tampa, FL as investor markets, three numbers do most of the work: gross rent yield (4.58% vs 6.22%), YoY appreciation (-2.4% vs -3.1%), and the share of homes closing below list (61.2% vs 67.5%). Those three signals predict 80% of operational outcomes — cash flow potential, exit speed, and how much room sellers leave at the table.
Rent yield: Tampa wins by 1.63 percentage points (6.22% vs 4.58%). That gap matters most for BRRRR and rental investors — at 2026 debt costs, every 100 bps of gross yield is roughly $80-150/door/month in additional cash flow on a typical $200k single-family. For pure cash-flow strategies, Tampa is the clearer choice.
Appreciation: Both markets are within 2 percentage points YoY — neither has a meaningful appreciation edge. Underwriting can assume flat ARVs in both with similar confidence.
Buyer dynamics: Tampa has 67.5% of sales closing below list vs 61.2% in the other market. That's a clear gap in seller negotiability — wholesalers and creative-finance operators have more room to work in Tampa. The other city is more competitive at the negotiation table.
Pace: Similar median DOM in both (23 vs 30 days). Operational cadences and carry-cost assumptions transfer between markets without recalibration.
Five operator lenses on the same matchup.
Higher % sold below list + longer DOM = more wholesale spread + more sourcing time.
Higher gross rent yield = cash-flow viability at 2026 debt costs after refi.
Stronger appreciation tailwind = less ARV slippage risk over the 4-6 month flip cycle.
Higher gross yield gives more cash flow cushion after PITI + reserves on standard 25%-down financing.
More motivated sellers = better fit for subject-to and seller-finance offers.
Tampa
Across the five operator lenses, Tampa wins 4 categories to Phoenix's 0 (with 1 ties). Tampa is the broader-strategy market — useful when you don't know yet which strategy you'll lead with. On the MDR composite investor score, Tampa leads 79 to 57.
Frequently asked.
Which is better for real estate investing, Phoenix or Tampa?
Tampa scores higher on the MDR composite investor index (79/100 vs 57/100), but the better choice depends on strategy. Phoenix has a 4.58% gross yield with -2.4% YoY appreciation; Tampa runs 6.22% at -3.1%.
Which city is cheaper to enter, Phoenix or Tampa?
Tampa has the lower typical home value at $376,530. The higher-priced market is $411,323.
Which city has higher rent yields?
Tampa has the higher gross rent yield at 6.22% vs 4.58% in the other market. That gap is 1.63 percentage points, which translates to roughly $2-2 per door per month in cash flow on a typical $200k single-family at 2026 debt costs.
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