How to BRRRR in Modesto, CA
BRRRR in Modesto is a 5.35% gross yield play — $1,996/mo rent on a $447k median. Whether that cash-flows depends on your debt cost.
DATA · Zillow Research (via scrape.do) · AS OF APRIL 2026
Modesto is a workable BRRRR market — tight but bankable math on disciplined deals.
- → Gross yield 5.35% — at national baseline
- → Rent $1,996/mo vs. national $1,930 — rent-normal
- → DSCR expectation at 75% LTV / 7.5%: 1.10-1.20 tight
- → Appreciation risk to refi: flat — neutral
Start with the gross math. Modesto's typical home value is $447,353; ZORI (Zillow's rent index) sits at $1,996/mo. That's 5.35% gross annual yield. That's right at the national 4-5% baseline — workable for BRRRR, but only on disciplined underwriting and a clean refi appraisal.
Run the DSCR sanity check. Assume 75% LTV refi at 7.5% interest, 30-year, plus taxes + insurance + 8% PM + 8% vacancy/capex reserve. On these inputs you'll likely clear DSCR 1.10-1.20 in Modesto — tight but bankable. Don't fall in love with marginal deals; reject anything that doesn't pencil at 1.15 minimum.
Rent demand color: Modesto rents ($1,996) are within 10% of the national median. Rent isn't the constraint or the catalyst — focus on getting acquisition + rehab in tight enough that the math works on standard local rents.
Refi appraisal risk: Modesto home values are flat YoY — refi appraisals should support your renovated comp on a properly scoped rehab. No softening tailwind to worry about, no appreciation tailwind to lean on.
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